Dark Side of Valuation: Valuing Young, Distressed, and Complex Businesses

Financial professionals have long faced the challenge of accurately valuing companies that are difficult to value using conventional methodologies. Years ago, this challenge was most keenly felt in the "dot-com" industries, and many professionals fell victim to the "dark side," creating values that were simply unsustainable. Now, amidst today's global financial crisis, the same challenge applies to a far wider spectrum of enterprises and assets, ranging from Asian equities to mortgage-backed securities, financial services firms like Lehman to real estate firms like Sears. In The Dark Side of Valuation, the world's top expert on valuation brings together today's best practices for accurately valuing young, distressed, and complex businesses. Aswath Damodaran has thoroughly revised this book, broadening its perspective to consider all companies that resist easy valuation. He covers the entire corporate lifecycle, from "idea" and "nascent growth" companies to those in decline and distress; and offers specific guidance for valuing infrastructure, real estate, technology, human capital, commodity, and cyclical firms. Damodaran places special emphasis on the financial sector, illuminating the implications of today's radically changed credit markets for valuation. Along the way, he addresses valuation questions that have suddenly gained urgency, ranging from "Are US treasuries risk-free?" to "How do you value assets in highly illiquid markets?"

Features

Guide to valuing companies in all stages and industries, fully revised to reflect today's financial markets and crisis.

Indispensable, up-to-the-minute guidance from the world's #1 expert in corporate valuation, Aswath Damodaran.
Expanded to include detailed coverage of companies in financial services, real estate, infrastructure, human capital, commodity, and cyclical markets.
Answers crucial valuation questions that have suddenly emerged in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Table of Contents

Preface vi

Chapter 1 The Dark Side of Valuation 1

Chapter 2 Intrinsic Valuation 22

Chapter 3 Probabilistic Valuation: Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees, and Simulations 64

Chapter 4 Relative Valuation 90

Chapter 5 Real Options Valuation 114

Chapter 6 A Shaky Base: A “Risky” Risk-Free Rate 144

Chapter 7 Risky Ventures: Assessing the Price of Risk 168

Chapter 8 Macro Matters: The Real Economy 194

Chapter 9 Baby Steps: Young and Start-Up Companies 213

Chapter 10 Shooting Stars? Growth Companies 263

Chapter 11 The Grown-Ups: Mature Companies 312

Chapter 12 Winding Down: Declining Companies 361

Chapter 13 Ups and Downs: Cyclical and Commodity Companies 417

Chapter 14 Mark to Market: Financial Services Companies 449

Chapter 15 Invisible Investments: Firms with Intangible Assets 476

Chapter 16 Volatility Rules: Emerging-Market Companies 505

Chapter 17 The Octopus: Multibusiness Global Companies 535

Chapter 18 Going Over to the Light: Vanquishing the Dark Side 568

Index 576

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